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Probability

Seventh graders learn to put a number on chance, from 0 for impossible to 1 for certain, and to calculate the probability of simple events like a coin flip or a dice roll.

Grade 7Probability50 minutes1 class periodGradual ReleaseExplicit teaching4 StandardsCommon Core
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Lesson at a Glance

Everything you need before the bell rings

Learning Objectives

Students will be able to…

  • ✓Place events on the 0 to 1 scale.
  • ✓Find simple probabilities.
  • ✓Use likely & unlikely.
  • ✓Reason about chance.
Essential Question

From weather forecasts to board games, we constantly judge how likely something is. How can we turn 'maybe' into a precise number?

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Lesson Phases
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Vocabulary Terms
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Standards Aligned
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Interactive Task
Model · Interactive Tool

Probability Check

Project this and answer each question about how likely events are — read the explanation after each one.

🎲 Check what you know about probabilityTry it
Answer each question about probability.
The Lesson · Gradual Release (I Do · We Do · You Do)

50 minutes, five moves

Tap any phase to open the teacher moves and student actions.

1

Hook — Will It Rain?

5 min

A forecast says 70% chance of rain. What does that number actually mean?

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Show a forecast.
  • Ask what 70% means.
  • Set the goal.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Think.
  • Share.
  • Get ready.
2

Use — Probability Check

12 min

Students answer questions about chance.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Send students to the Probability Check.
  • Answer each question.
  • Read the why.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Answer.
  • Check.
  • Read it.
3

Modify — Count the Outcomes

13 min

Students find probabilities of simple events.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • List all outcomes.
  • Count the favorable ones.
  • Write the probability.

🎒 Student Actions

  • List.
  • Count.
  • Write.
4

Create — Design a Spinner

15 min

Students build a spinner to match probabilities.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Pick target chances.
  • Divide a spinner to fit.
  • Label each section.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Pick.
  • Divide.
  • Label.
5

Reflect — From 0 to 1

5 min

Students reflect on the probability scale.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • What does a probability of 0 mean?
  • What does 1 mean?
  • Complete the exit ticket.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Say it.
  • Say it.
  • Complete the exit ticket.
Standards Alignment

Built to the standards you report on

Aligned to the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics.

CCSS
7.SP.C.5

Understand that the probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1 expressing likelihood.

CCSS
7.SP.C.6

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data and observing long-run relative frequency.

CCSS
7.SP.C.7

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events.

CCSS
MP.4

Model with mathematics.

Differentiation

One lesson, every learner

Multilingual Learners

ELL / EMERGING READERS
  • Event cards + a 0-to-1 line.
  • Sentence frame: “This event is ___ .”
  • Place one event at a time.

Support & Access

IEP / 504
  • Start with impossible vs certain.
  • Use real coins and dice.
  • Count outcomes before writing fractions.

Stretch & Extend

GIFTED / EARLY FINISHERS
  • Find probabilities of compound events.
  • Compare theoretical and experimental results.
  • Express probability as fraction, decimal, and percent.
Materials

What to gather

  • 📽️Projector / board
  • 🎲Coins, dice, spinners
  • 💻Probability Check
  • 📊0-to-1 number line
  • ✏️Pencils
  • 🎫Exit-ticket slips
Vocabulary

Key terms — hover for a quick definition

probabilitya number from 0 to 1 that tells how likely an event iseventan outcome or set of outcomes we are interested inoutcomeone possible result of an action, like rolling a 4favorable outcomean outcome that counts as the event happeningcertainsure to happen; a probability of 1impossiblecannot happen; a probability of 0likelyhaving a good chance of happening (probability near 1)unlikelyhaving a small chance of happening (probability near 0)
Evaluate

Exit Ticket

Preview the three formative checks. Tap “Sample answer” to see what mastery looks like — hide them before you print for students.

QUESTION 1
What range of numbers can a probability be?
From 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).
QUESTION 2
What is the probability of rolling an even number on a fair six-sided die?
3/6, or 1/2, because 2, 4, and 6 are even (3 of the 6 outcomes).
QUESTION 3
How do you find the probability of a simple event?
Divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of equally likely outcomes.

Create: design a spinner.

Have students choose target probabilities (like 1/2 red, 1/4 blue, 1/4 green), divide a spinner to match, and label each section. A printable probability worksheet is in the Mathematics library.

Study · Flashcards

Study the key terms

Tap a card to flip it, then rate whether you knew it. Built from this lesson’s vocabulary.

🃏 ProbabilityFlip
Card 1
Term
Tap to flip →
Meaning
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Nice work!

Practice · Quiz

Check your understanding

A quick self-check with instant feedback, drawn from this lesson’s key terms.

📝 ProbabilityQuiz
Score: 0
1 / 6
Question 1
0%

Nice work!

Practice · Worksheet

Printable worksheet

A print-and-go review sheet with a built-in answer key. Tap “Show answer key” to reveal answers, or print the clean version for students.

🖨️ ProbabilityPrint
Name: ________________________
Date: ____________

Part A · Write the word that matches each meaning

Word bank: certain, event, favorable outcome, impossible, likely, outcome, probability, unlikely
  1. an outcome that counts as the event happening
  2. sure to happen; a probability of 1
  3. having a good chance of happening (probability near 1)
  4. having a small chance of happening (probability near 0)
  5. one possible result of an action, like rolling a 4
  6. cannot happen; a probability of 0
  7. a number from 0 to 1 that tells how likely an event is
  8. an outcome or set of outcomes we are interested in

Part B · Show what you learned

  1. What range of numbers can a probability be?
  2. What is the probability of rolling an even number on a fair six-sided die?
  3. How do you find the probability of a simple event?
Answer key — Part A: 1) favorable outcome · 2) certain · 3) likely · 4) unlikely · 5) outcome · 6) impossible · 7) probability · 8) event
Part B: 1) From 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). 2) 3/6, or 1/2, because 2, 4, and 6 are even (3 of the 6 outcomes). 3) Divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of equally likely outcomes.