Home›Lesson Plans›Mathematics›Statistics & Probability · Grade 7

Probability: How Likely Is It?

Students learn to measure chance — from impossible (0) to certain (1) — by counting favorable outcomes over total outcomes, and compare the theoretical probability of an event with what actually happens when they test it.

Grade 7Probability50 minutes1 class periodGradual ReleaseExplicit teaching4 StandardsCommon Core
Start the Lesson
Lesson at a Glance

Everything you need before the bell rings

Learning Objectives

Students will be able to…

  • ✓Express probability from 0 to 1.
  • ✓Find theoretical probability (favorable ÷ total).
  • ✓Compare theoretical and experimental results.
  • ✓Describe events as likely/unlikely.
Essential Question

What are the chances the spinner lands on red? How do we put a number on “likely” and “unlikely”?

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Lesson Phases
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Vocabulary Terms
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Standards Aligned
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Interactive Task
Model · Interactive Tool

The Probability Spinner

Project this and spin. The theoretical probability of each color is shown — spin many times to see the experimental results get close to it.

🎯 Spin the wheel — test the probabilityTry it
🔻

The Lesson · Gradual Release (I Do · We Do · You Do)

50 minutes, five moves

Tap any phase to open the teacher moves and student actions.

1

Launch — Put a Number on It

5 min

How likely is red on this spinner — can we say a number?

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Show the spinner.
  • Ask how likely red is.
  • Set the goal: probability.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Look at the spinner.
  • Estimate the chance.
  • Predict the number.
2

I Do — Favorable over Total

10 min

Teacher models.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Count favorable outcomes.
  • Divide by total outcomes.
  • Place it on a 0-to-1 scale.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Count favorable.
  • Divide by total.
  • Place on the scale.
3

We Do — Spin Together

13 min

Class drives the Probability Spinner.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Read each color’s probability.
  • Spin many times.
  • Compare experimental to theoretical.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Read the probability.
  • Spin and tally.
  • Compare results.
4

You Do — On Your Own

12 min

Students find probabilities.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Assign spinner/dice/coin probabilities.
  • Simplify fractions.
  • Predict a long-run result.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Find probabilities.
  • Simplify them.
  • Predict the long run.
5

Close — Close

5 min

One probability.

👩‍🏫 Teacher Moves

  • Give an event; find its probability.
  • Describe it as likely/unlikely.
  • Hand out the exit ticket.

🎒 Student Actions

  • Find the probability.
  • Describe it.
  • Complete the exit ticket.
Standards Alignment

Built to the standards you report on

Aligned to the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics, including the Standards for Mathematical Practice.

CCSS
7.SP.5

Understand that probability is a number between 0 and 1 expressing likelihood.

CCSS
7.SP.6

Approximate the probability of an event by collecting data from a chance process.

CCSS
7.SP.7

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events.

CCSS
7.SP.8

Find probabilities of compound events.

Differentiation

One lesson, every learner

Multilingual Learners

ELL / EMERGING READERS
  • A 0-to-1 likelihood line.
  • Sentence frame: “P(red) = ___ out of ___.”
  • Use real spinners/dice.

Support & Access

IEP / 504
  • Start with a coin (heads/tails).
  • Count outcomes together.
  • Use simple fractions.

Stretch & Extend

GIFTED / EARLY FINISHERS
  • Compare experimental to theoretical over many trials.
  • Find the probability of a compound event.
  • Design a fair game.
Materials

What to gather

  • 📽️Projector / board
  • 📓Math notebooks
  • 💻The Probability Spinner
  • 🎲Dice, coins, spinners
  • 🧮Calculators
  • 🎫Exit-ticket slips
Vocabulary

Key terms — hover for a quick definition

probabilityhow likely an event is (0 to 1)outcomea possible resulteventa set of outcomesfavorable outcomea result you’re looking fortheoretical probabilitythe expected chanceexperimental probabilitythe chance from real trialslikelyprobably will happencertainsure to happen (P = 1)
Evaluate

Exit Ticket

Preview the three formative checks. Tap “Sample answer” to see what mastery looks like — hide them before you print for students.

QUESTION 1
A spinner has 4 red and 4 blue equal sections. What is P(red)?
4/8 = 1/2.
QUESTION 2
What does a probability of 0 mean?
The event is impossible (it cannot happen).
QUESTION 3
If you roll a fair die, what is the probability of rolling a 3?
1/6 (one favorable outcome out of six).

Going deeper? Theoretical vs. experimental.

Have students spin or roll many times, record results, and compare their experimental probability to the theoretical probability — they get closer with more trials. A printable trials sheet is in the Math library.

Study · Flashcards

Study the key terms

Tap a card to flip it, then rate whether you knew it. Built from this lesson’s vocabulary.

🃏 ProbabilityFlip
Card 1
Term
Tap to flip →
Meaning
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Practice · Quiz

Check your understanding

A quick self-check with instant feedback, drawn from this lesson’s key terms.

📝 ProbabilityQuiz
Score: 0
1 / 6
Question 1
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Practice · Worksheet

Printable worksheet

A print-and-go review sheet with a built-in answer key. Tap “Show answer key” to reveal answers, or print the clean version for students.

🖨️ ProbabilityPrint
Name: ________________________
Date: ____________

Part A · Write the word that matches each meaning

Word bank: certain, event, experimental probability, favorable outcome, likely, outcome, probability, theoretical probability
  1. the chance from real trials
  2. how likely an event is (0 to 1)
  3. sure to happen (P = 1)
  4. probably will happen
  5. a set of outcomes
  6. a possible result
  7. a result you’re looking for
  8. the expected chance

Part B · Show what you learned

  1. A spinner has 4 red and 4 blue equal sections. What is P(red)?
  2. What does a probability of 0 mean?
  3. If you roll a fair die, what is the probability of rolling a 3?
Answer key — Part A: 1) experimental probability · 2) probability · 3) certain · 4) likely · 5) event · 6) outcome · 7) favorable outcome · 8) theoretical probability
Part B: 1) 4/8 = 1/2. 2) The event is impossible (it cannot happen). 3) 1/6 (one favorable outcome out of six).